Volume 14, 2010
|Page(s)||53 - 64|
|Published online||26 March 2010|
Universität Zürich Angewandte Mathematik, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Revised: 13 July 2008
Branching process approximation to the initial stages of an epidemic process has been used since the 1950's as a technique for providing stochastic counterparts to deterministic epidemic threshold theorems. One way of describing the approximation is to construct both branching and epidemic processes on the same probability space, in such a way that their paths coincide for as long as possible. In this paper, it is shown, in the context of a Markovian model of parasitic infection, that coincidence can be achieved with asymptotically high probability until MN infections have occurred, as long as MN = o(N2/3), where N denotes the total number of hosts.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30 / 62E17.
Key words: Likelihood ratio coupling / branching process approximation / epidemic process.
© EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010
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